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Recent Publications by East-West Center Authors
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Featured Publications

Effects of COVID-19 restriction measures in Indonesia: A comparative spatial and policy analysis of selected urban agglomerations

East-West Center Fellow Micah Fisher published a paper titled "Effects of COVID-19 restriction measures in Indonesia: A comparative spatial and policy analysis of selected urban agglomerations" in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. With higher densities, urban agglomerations account for the fastest rates of COVID-19 transmission. In Indonesia, one of the most rapidly urbanizing regions in the world, the national government issues overall policy on the pandemic. However, implementation is often contingent on local governments. Many policies aim to stem the spread of infection by controlling people's mobility or regulating their daily activities. Urban agglomerations are a strategic site of investigation in this light, because they consist of interconnected communities governed by various levels and jurisdictions. This paper analyzes the effects of policy interventions relative to confirmed cases in the seven major urban agglomerations in Indonesia.

The publication is available for viewing here. The publisher is allowing free access to the paper until July 8, 2022.

The Battle Against Ocean Acidification in the United States

East-West Center Adjunct Senior Fellow Sherry Broder published "The Battle Against Ocean Acidification in the United States" in the Research Handbook on Ocean Acidification Law and Policy. The publication addresses the legal and policy responses to ocean acidification in the United States. Existing federal law is inadequate to address the ecological threat of ocean acidification. Regulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and climate change continues to be a very controversial issue in the United States. Moreover, carbon emissions are created in every country and for the most part cannot be regulated by US environmental laws.

The publication is available for purchase, here.

Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Economic Security: Asia and the World

East-West Center Senior Fellows Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee published their paper, "Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Economic Security: Asia and the World," in the Asian Development Review, Volume 39. In their publication they focus on the demographic transition in the Asia and Pacific economies and the age-related labor income and consumption profiles of individual households in these economies by studying the National Transfer Accounts, related administrative data, and system of national accounts. The analysis provides estimates of the effective labor available to the economy from earnings of the working-age groups to support income and spending necessary to provide public funding for the consumption needs of the elderly retirees.

You can download a free copy of Asian Development Review, Volume 39, here.

Landscape Conservation in a Changing Climate: Lessons from the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative 

“Landscape conservation” emphasizes the importance of conservation planning at scales that encompass ecological processes and pervasive threats. The Department of the Interior supported a network of Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) from 2009 until 2018 to address large-scale threats such as climate change. As one of these 22 LCCs, the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC) was established to assist those who manage native species, island ecosystems, and key cultural resources in adapting their management to climate change. Guided by a diverse steering committee of land/resource managers, the PICCC serviced a vast area across Hawaiʻi and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands. This new publication by EWC Adjunct Fellow Wendy Miles and Susanne Moser describes the foundational conditions from which the PICCC set out to establish a landscape conservation framework, the challenges it faced, its goals and achievements, and transferable lessons from the experience for any conservation community working with limited resources across large expanses of land and ocean.

East Asia Decouples from the United States: Trade War, COVID-19, and East Asia’s New Trade Blocs

The deepening US-China trade war and nationalist reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic are reshaping global economic relationships, according to a new working paper coauthored by East-West Center Non-Resident Senior Fellow Michael Plummer. Alongside these developments, two new megaregional trade agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), will refocus East Asia’s economic ties in the region itself.  The new agreements offset the effects of the trade war globally, but not for the United States and China. The trade war makes RCEP especially valuable because it strengthens East Asian interdependence, raising trade among members by $428 billion and reducing trade among nonmembers by $48 billion. These shifts bring regional ties closer to institutional arrangements proposed in the 1990s and incentivize greater cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea.

Competing in Artificial Intelligence Chips: China’s Challenge Amid Technology War

This special report by East-West Center Adjunct Senior Fellow Dieter Ernst assesses the challenges that China is facing in developing its artificial intelligence (AI) industry due to unprecedented US technology export restrictions. A central proposition is that China's achievements in AI lack a robust foundation in leading-edge AI chips, and thus the country is vulnerable to externally imposed supply disruptions. China's leadership believes that a robust domestic AI chip industry is needed if the country wants to sustain its still highly fragile achievements in commercial AI applications. From a US perspective, it is ironic that US restrictions on technology exports may actually strengthen China's resolve to accelerate the development of its domestic semiconductor industry.

Learning from Success in Climate-Informed Decision-Making: Case Studies Across Three U.S. Regions

A network of sustained assessment specialists created within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (NOAA RISA) program present a new report that includes five case studies of successful local responses to climate change supported by scientific information. East-West Center Project Specialist Zena Grecni was the lead author. Based on three regions—the U.S. Pacific Islands, the South Central United States, and the Rocky Mountain West—the case studies feature local managers who are providing and applying climate information, with valuable outcomes, across a range of geographic scales and sectors. They include improving local climate-adaptation efforts in San Angelo, Texas, enhancing the resilience of iconic coastal ecosystems on Hawai‘i Island, managing water in the Colorado River Conservation District, increasing conservation resilience in the southern Great Plains, and using El Niño forecasts to plan for drought in the Pacific Islands. The case studies provide new insights, which are summarized as five practical lessons for anyone seeking to better integrate climate considerations into decision-making.

Macroeconomic Impacts and Policies in Aging Societies

Will population aging lead to an economic crisis with tepid economic growth, generational inequality, unsustainable public finances, and overly burdened families? East-West Center Senior Fellows Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee explore these questions in the lead chapter of a recent book published by the Asian Development Bank Institute, Aging societies: Policies and perspectives.

All Recent Publications

2022

Broder, S. P. (2021). The Battle against Ocean Acidification in the United States. Research Handbook on Ocean Acidification Law and Policy, 260–275. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789900149.00026

Yuliani, E. L., Moeliono, M., Labarani, A., Fisher, M. R., Tias, P. A., & Sunderland, T. (2022). Relational values of forests: Value‐conflicts between local communities and external programmes in Sulawesi. People and Nature. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10389

Handayani, W., Insani, T. D., Fisher, M., Gim, T.-H. T., Mardhotillah, S., & Adam, U. E.-fatih. (2022). Effects of covid-19 restriction measures in Indonesia: A comparative spatial and policy analysis of selected Urban Agglomerations. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 76, 103015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103015

Faxon, Hilary Oliva, Jenny E. Goldstein, Micah R. Fisher, and Glenn Hunt. "Territorializing spatial data: Controlling land through One Map projects in Indonesia and Myanmar." Political Geography 98 (2022): 102651.

Rodd, Myers, Micah R. Fisher, Iliana Monterroso, Nining Liswanti, Ahmad Maryudi, Anne M. Larson, Esther Mwangi, and Tuti Herawati. "Coordinating forest tenure reform: Objectives, resources and relations in Indonesia, Kenya, Nepal, Peru, and Uganda." Forest Policy and Economics 139 (2022): 102718.

Maryudi, Ahmad, Muhammad Alif K. Sahide, Muhammad H. Daulay, Dhany Yuniati, Wildan Syafitri, Suryanto Sadiyo, and Micah R. Fisher. "Holding social forestry hostage in Indonesia: Contested bureaucracy mandates and potential escape pathways." Environmental Science & Policy 128 (2022): 142-153.

Myers, Rodd, Cecilia Luttrell, Rahayu Harjanthi, Micah R. Fisher, Mary Menton, Peter Läderach, and Eva Wollenberg. "Climate change mitigation in forests: Conflict, peacebuilding, and lessons for climate security-Position Paper." (2021).

Keener, V. W., Grecni, Z. N., &; Moser, S. C. (2022). Accelerating climate change adaptive capacity through regional sustained assessment and evaluation in Hawai‘i and the U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands. Frontiers in Climate, 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.869760

Adhikari, M. Longman R.J., Giambelluca, T.W., Lee, C.N., and He, Y. Climate Change Impacts and Shifting Landscape of Dairy Industry in Hawai‘i, Translational Animal Science. 6(2).  
 
Huang, Y-F. Tsang, Y-P., Gayte, M. Longman, R.J. Nugent, A., Kodama, K., Lucas, M. and Giambelluca., T.W., Hourly rainfall data from rain gauge networks and weather radar up to 2020 across the Hawaiian Islands. Scientific Data. 9(334)
 
Longman, R.J.; Frazier, A.G.; Giardina, C.P.; Parsons, E.W.; McDaniel, S. (2022) The Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange: A Co-Production Approach to Deliver Climate Resources to User Groups. Sustainability, 14, 10554. 

Lucas, M. P., R. J. Longman, T. W. Giambelluca, A. F. Frazier, J. Mclean, S. B. Clevland, Y. Haung, and J. H. Lee, (2022). Optimizing automated kriging to improve spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall over complex terrain. J. Hydrometeorology. (In Press).

Longman R.J., Peterson, C. L., Baroli, M., Frazier, A. F., Cook, Z., Parsons, E. W. Dina, M., Kamelamela, K. L., Steele, C., Burnett, R., Swanston, C. and Giardina, C. P. (2022). Climate Adaptation for Tropical Island Land Stewardship: Adapting a Workshop Planning Process to Hawai‘i. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103.

Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park, 2022 “Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Economic Security: Asia and the World” Asian Development Review 39(1) March 131-167. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110522500019

Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2022). Six ways population change will affect the global economy. Population and Development Review. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12469

Kasuya, Y., Reilly, B. (2022). The shift to consensus democracy and limits of Institutional Design in Asia. The Pacific Review, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2022.2035426

2021

Bremer, Leah L., Ahmed S. Elshall, Christopher A. Wada, Laura Brewington, Jade M.S. Delevaux, Aly I. El-Kadi, Clifford I. Voss, and Kimberly M. Burnett (2021). Effects of land cover and watershed protection futures on sustainable groundwater management in Hawai‘i (USA). Hydrogeology Journal. doi:10.1007/s10040-021-02310-6

Brewington, Laura, Kelli Kokame, and Nancy Davis Lewis (2021).))) Changing climate and its implications for health and migration in the Pacific: Examples from the Marshall Islands. AsiaPacific Issues no. 149.

Brown, Tim, Wiwat Peerapatanapokin, Nalyn Siripong, and Robert Puckett (2021 submitted). The AIDS Epidemic Model 2021 (AEM 5.0) for estimating HIV trends and transmission dynamics in Asian epidemic settings. AIDS 2021.

Clark, Robert, YoungWok Lee, and Andrew Mason, eds. (2021). Fiscal accountability and population aging. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.

Cheng, Chui Ling, Scot K. Izuka, Joseph J. Kennedy, Abby G. Frazier, and Thomas W. Giambelluca (2021). Water-resource management monitoring needs, State of Hawai‘i. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5115, 114 pp. doi:10.3133/sir20205115

Govella, Kristi (2021). China's challenge to the global commons: Compliance, contestation, and subversion in the maritime and cyber domains. International Relations 35(3): 446–468.

Govella, Kristi (2021). The Adaptation of Japanese Economic Statecraft: Trade, Aid, and Technology. World Trade Review 20(2): 186–202.

Grecni, Zena, Wendy Miles, Erin M. Derrington, Robbie Greene, and Victoria Keener (2021). Climate change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands: Indicators and considerations for key sectors. Report for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment. Honolulu, HI: East-West Center. https://eastwestcenter.org/PIRCA-CNMI

Keener, Victoria, Zena Grecni, Chris Shuler, Kelley Anderson, and Wendy Miles (2021 in press). Climate change in American Sāmoa: Indicators and considerations for key sectors. Report for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment. Honolulu, HI: East-West Center.

Mclean, J., Cleveland S.B., Dodge II M., Lucas M.P., Longman R.J., Giambelluca T.W., and G. Jacobs G.A. (2021). Building a portal for climate data-mapping automation, visualization, and dissemination. Concurrency Computation Practice and Experience.

Longman, Ryan J., Oliver Elison Timm, Thomas W. Giambelluca, and Lauren Kaiser (2021). A 20-year analysis of disturbance-driven rainfall on O‘ahu, Hawai‘i. Monthly Weather Review. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-20-0287.1

Mason, Andrew (2021). Are Asia’s demographic dividends disappearing? China: An International Journal 19(3): 18–32.

Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2021). Sub-one fertility: A dark cloud with silver linings. In H. Cho, ed. Challenges and policy responses to population aging. Sejong-si: Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs Press.

Miles, Wendy, and Susanne Moser (2021). Landscape conservation in a changing climate: Lessons from the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Miller, F. DeWolfe, Sumner La Croix, Tim Brown, L. Thomas Ramsey, and David Morens (2021). Unique pattern of COVID-19 infection in the State of Hawai‘i. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 103: 298–299. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.201

Neumark, David, Yong-seong Kim, and Sang-Hyop Lee, eds. (2021). Human capital policy: Reducing inequality, boosting mobility and productivity. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Neumark, David, Yong-seong Kim, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2021). Introduction and overview. In D. Neumark et al., eds. Human capital policy: Reducing inequality, boosting mobility and productivity. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Nông, Duong H., An T. Ngo, Hoa P. T. Nguyen, Thuy T. Nguyen, Lan T. Nguyen, and Sumeet Saksena (2021). Changes in coastal agricultural land use in response to climate change: An assessment using satellite remote sensing and household survey data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam. Land 10(6): 627.

Nông, Duong H., Jefferson Fox, Sumeet Saksena, and Christopher A. Lepczyk (2021). The use of spatial metrics and population data in mapping the rural-urban transition and exploring models of urban growth in Hanoi, Vietnam. Environment and Urbanization ASIA 12(1): 156–168. doi:10.1177/0975425321997785

Ogawa, Naohiro, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2021). Japan’s New Orange Plan and the changing cognitive abilities of the elderly. In H. Cho, ed. Challenges and policy responses to population aging. Sejong-si: Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs Press.

Ogawa, Naohiro, Norma Mansor, Sang-Hyop Lee, Michael R.M. Abrigo, and Tahir Aris (2021). Population aging and the three demographic dividends in Asia. Asian Development Review 38(1): 32­–67. doi:10.1162/adev_a_00157

Park, C., and Sang-Hyop Lee (2021). Health and retirement: South Korea, China, and the US. In H. Cho, ed. Challenges and policy responses to population aging. Sejong-si: Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs Press.

Park, Cyn-Young, Peter A. Petri, and Michael G. Plummer. (2021). The economics of conflict and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China Trade War. East Asian Economic Review 25(3): 233–272. doi:10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2021.25.3.397

Roy, Denny (2021). Afghanistan fiasco does not destroy US credibility in Asia-Pacific. The Diplomat. 18 August.

Roy, Denny (2021). Biden inherits qualified North Korea policy failure. Asia Times. 20 January.

Roy, Denny (2021). China and USA not full partners on North Korea. The National Interest. 30 June.

Roy, Denny (2021). Climate change: A new arena of US-China tension. Asia Times. 13 September.

Roy, Denny (2021). How China squandered its chance for a peaceful rise. The National Interest. 13 February.

Roy, Denny (2021). How firm is Biden’s Commitment to be Asia-Pacific’s top dog? Straits Times. 14 September.

Roy, Denny (2021). Japan is less secure—despite improved US ties. Straits Times. 10 April.

Roy, Denny (2021). Japan on the pointed horns of a China dilemma. Asia Times. 29 April.

Roy, Denny (2021). The one thing that North Korea does well is survive. The National Interest. 27 June.

Roy, Denny (2021). Power dynamics, more than ideology, drive US-China tensions. East-West Wire. 13 January. Reprinted in Eurasia Review. 13 January.

Roy, Denny (2021). Rumors of war in the Taiwan Strait. The Diplomat. 20 March.

Roy, Denny (2021). South Korea too preoccupied with survival to be Asia’s Sweden. The National Interest. 26 July.

Roy, Denny (2021). Tough sell for Moon in summit with Biden. Straits Times. 15 May.

Roy, Denny (2021). US-North Korea relations will follow same pattern despite coronavirus. The National Interest. 19 April.

Roy, Denny (2021). US-South Korea ties: From crisis to muddling through. Straits Times. 26 February.

Roy, Denny (2021). Why Taiwan looms large for Japan. Straits Times. 18 June.

Roy, Denny (2021). Wuhan lab-leak theory is back with consequences. Asia Times. 31 May.

Roy, Denny (2021). Zheng He’s voyages—The sequel. Straits Times. 31 July.

Shuler, Chris, Laura Brewington, and Aly I. El-Kadi (2021). A participatory approach to assessing groundwater recharge under future climate and land-cover scenarios, Tutuila, American Samoa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 34: 100785. doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100785

Spencer, James Nguyen H. (2021). A landscape planning agenda for global health security: Learning from the history of HIV/AIDS and pandemic influenza. Landscape and Urban Planning 216: 104242. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104242

Spencer, James Nguyen H., David Marasco, and Michelle Eichinger (2021). Planning for emerging infectious disease pandemics: Definitions, the role of planners, and learning from the Avian Influenza outbreak of 2004–2005. Journal of the American Planning Association. doi:10.1080/01944363.2021.1930107

Van Den Hoek, Jamon, Alexander C. Smith, Kaspar Hurni, Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox (2021). Shedding new light on mountainous forest growth: A cross-scale evaluation of the effects of topographic illumination correction on 25 years of forest cover change across Nepal. Remote Sensing 13(11): 2131. doi:10.3390/rs13112131

Woods, Kevin (2021). Rebel territory in a resource frontier: Commodification and spatialized orders of rule in Tanintharyi Region, Myanmar. Geoforum 124: 371–380. doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2021.04.030

2020

Bettinger, Keith A., and Ryan J. Longman (2020). Pacific Island Country Climate Factsheets. USAID Climate Ready Knowledge Products, Contract Number AID-492-H-17-00001.

Brewington, Laura (2020). Transitions and drivers of land use/land cover change in Hawaiʻi: A case study of Maui. In S.J. Walsh, D. Riveros-Iregui, J. Acre-Nazario, and P.H. Page, eds. Land cover/land use change on islands: Social and ecological threats to sustainability. Heidelberg: Springer.

Brewington, Laura, John Marra, Matthew Widlansky, Francyne Wase-Jacklick, and Jane Ishigiro (2020). Official proceedings of the First National Climate Change and Health Dialog. Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands.

Brown, Tim (2020). Editorial: Trace for coronavirus containment, then carefully restart Hawaii businesses. Honolulu Star Advertiser, 12 April.

Brown, Tim, and Sumner La Croix (2020). How to control Hawaii’s coronavirus epidemic and bring back the economy: The next steps. UHERO Brief (The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawai‘i), 3 April.

Brown, Tim, and Sumner La Croix (2020). Using extensive testing and geographical isolation to mitigate the coronavirus crisis in Hawaii. UHERO Brief (The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawai‘i), 25 March 25.

Choi, J., W.H. Lim, and Sang-Hyop Lee, eds. (2020 in press). Competition law and economics: Developments, policies, and enforcement trends in the US and Korea. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

City and County of Honolulu Climate Change Commission [Rosanna Alegado, Makena Coffman, Charles Fletcher, Victoria Keener, and Bettina J. Mehnert](2020). Climate change and financial risk—guidance document. Honolulu: City and County of Honolulu Climate Change Commission. Adopted 14 July 2020.

City and County of Honolulu Climate Change Commission [Rosanna Alegado, Makena Coffman, Charles Fletcher, Victoria Keener, and Bettina J. Mehnert] (2020). Climate change and social equity guidance. Adopted: 8 December, 2020.

Crausbay, Shelley D., Julio Betancourt, John Bradford, Jennifer Cartwright, William C. Dennison, Jason Dunham, Carolyn A.F. Enquist, Abby G. Frazier, Kimberly R. Hall, Jeremy S. Littell, Charles H. Luce, Richard Palmer, Aaron R. Ramirez, Imtiaz Rangwala, Laura Thompson, Brianne M. Walsh, and Shawn Carter (2020). Unfamiliar territory: Emerging themes for ecological drought research and management. One Earth 3(3): 337–353. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.08.019

Ernst, Dieter (2020). Catching up in a technology war—China's challenge in artificial intelligence. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 16 June.

Ernst, Dieter (2020). Competing in artificial intelligence chips: China’s challenge amid technology war. Special Report. Waterloo, Canada: Centre for International Governance Innovation.

Fox, Jefferson, Arunee Promkhambut, and Phanwin Yokying (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on rice farmers in Southeast Asia. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 3 July.

Fox, Jefferson, Phanwin Yokying, Naya Sharma Paudel, and Ram Chhetri (2020). Another possible cost of COVID-19: Returning workers may lead to deforestation in Nepal. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 28 August.

Govella, Kristi (2020). Crafting policies for contested commons: Insights from Japan's approach to the outer space, cyberspace, and maritime domains. Joint Policy Paper Series: Japan's Leadership in the Liberal International Order: Impact and Policy Opportunities for Partners. Vancouver, Canada: School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia.

Grecni, Zena, Wendy Miles, Romina King, Abby G. Frazier, and Victoria Keener (2020). Climate change in Guam: Indicators and considerations for key sectors. Report for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment. Honolulu, HI: East-West Center. http://www.eastwestcenter.org/PIRCA-Guam

Han, Soyoung, and Marcus Noland (2020). Women, leadership, and Asian economic performance. AsiaPacific Issues no. 142. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Hong, Yu, and Eric Harwit (2020). China's globalizing internet: History, power, and governance. Chinese Journal of Communication 13(1): 1–7.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, ed. (2020 forthcoming). Challenges and policy responses to population aging. Sejong-si, Korea: KIHASA Press.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Andrew Mason (2020). Better work opportunities for older adults would benefit South Korean economy. Eurasia Review. 27 May.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, Andrew Mason, and Donghyun Park (2020). Aging and debt. Manila: Asian Development Bank.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, Cheol-Kon Park, and Andrew Mason (2020). Better work opportunities for older adults would benefit the South Korean economy. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 26 May.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, Cheol-Kon Park, and Andrew Mason (2020). Labor market, older workers, and health capacity to work: Evidence from South Korea. Manila: Asian Development Bank.

Lewis, Nancy Davis, and Jonathan D. Mayer (2020). Challenges and responses to COVID-19: Experience from Asia. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 10 July.

Longman, Ryan J., Andrew J. Newman, Thomas W. Giambelluca, and Matthew Lucas (2020). Characterizing the uncertainty and assessing the value of gap-filled daily rainfall data in Hawaii. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 59(7): 1261–1276. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0007.1

Lucas, Matthew P., Clay Trauernicht, Abby G. Frazier, and Tomoaki Miura (2020). Long-Term, Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index for Hawai‘i. Data 5(4): 109. doi:10.3390/data5040109

Luo, Xiao, Bin Wang, Abby G. Frazier, and Thomas W. Giambelluca (2020). Distinguishing variability regimes of Hawaiian summer rainfall: Quasi-biennial and interdecadal oscillations. Geophysical Research Letters 47(23): e2020GL091260. doi:10.1029/2020GL091260

Lüthje, Boy (2020). New technologies and new modes of production disrupt China's automotive industry. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 6 April.

Mason, Andrew, and Michael Abrigo (2020). Hawaii’s generational economy. Honolulu: State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park (2020). An aging population in Asia creates economic challenges. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 8 May.

Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park (2020). Demographic change, economic growth, and old-age economic security: Asia and the world. Manila: Asian Development Bank.

Mayer, Jonathan D., and Nancy Davis Lewis (2020). An inevitable pandemic: Geographic insights into the COVID-19 global health emergency. Eurasian Geography and Economics 61(4–5): 404–422. doi:10.1080/15387216.2020.1786425

McNally, Christopher (2020). Chaotic mélange: Neo-liberalism and neo-statism in the age of Sino-capitalism. Review of International Political Economy 27(2): 281–301.

McNally, Christopher (2020). US-China economic relations under pressure from COVID-19. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 1 June.

Miles, Wendy B. (2020). The invisible commodity: Local experiences with forest carbon offsetting in Indonesia. Nature and Space 1–26. doi:10.1177/2514848620905235.10

Miles, Wendy, Zena Grecni, Erbai Xavier Matsutaro, Patrick Colin, Victoria Keener, and Yimnang Golbuu (2020). Climate change in Palau: Indicators and considerations for key sectors. Report for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment. Honolulu, HI: East-West Center. https://eastwestcenter.org/PIRCA-Palau

Neumark, David, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Yong-seong Kim, eds. (2020 in press). A new direction in human capital policy. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Noland, Marcus (2020). Protectionism under Trump: The China shock, deplorables, and the first white president. Asian Economic Policy Review 15(1): 31–50.

Noland, Marcus (2020). The pandemic in North Korea: Lessons from the 1990s famine. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 8 June.

Nugent, Alison D., Ryan Longman, Clay Trauernicht, Matthew Lucas, Henry F. Diaz, and Thomas W. Giambelluca (2020). Fire and rain: The legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawai‘i. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 101(6): E954–E967. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0104.1

Ogawa, Naohiro, Rikiya Matsukura, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2020). Women’s changing work arrangements, career paths, and marital fertility in Japan. Advances in Life Course Research 46 (December 2020): 100375.

Petri, Peter A., and Michael G. Plummer (2020). East Asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19, and East Asia's new trade blocs. Working Paper 20-9. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Roy, Denny (2020). A Chinese attack on Taiwan is not imminent. Asia Times. 19 March.

Roy, Denny (2020). China won’t achieve regional hegemony. The Washington Quarterly. 19 March.

Roy, Denny (2020). China's domestic politics hamstring its diplomacy. Asia Times. 25 May.

Roy, Denny (2020). China’s eight arguments against Western ‘hubris’ and why they fail. Pacific Forum. 1 May.

Roy, Denny (2020). China's pandemic diplomacy. AsiaPacific Issues no. 144. Honolulu, HI: East-West Center.

Roy, Denny (2020). Did COVID-19 really give China a strategic advantage? The Diplomat. 22 July.

Roy, Denny (2020). How China is slow conquering the South China Sea. The National Interest. 7 May.

Roy, Denny (2020). If Kim Jong-un dies North Korea could survive (with Kim Yo-jong taking over). The National Interest. 26 April.

Roy, Denny (2020). No fire and fury: 2020 may be a quiet year for US-North Korea relations. The National Interest. 12 May.

Roy, Denny (2020). PacNet #47—The collapse of Chinese soft power. Pacific Forum. 14 August.

Roy, Denny (2020). Pandemic won’t break the North Korea stalemate. The National Interest. 28 March.

Roy, Denny (2020). Reasons for Taiwan to be hopeful. Taipei Times. 16 April.

Roy, Denny (2020). Tensions in Northeast Asia pose varying threats to Southeast Asia. Perspective. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.

Roy, Denny (2020). US-China reconciliation is drifting further away. The Japan Times. 29 July.

Roy, Denny (2020). When giants fight, even the wisest Southeast Asian leaders are left helpless. ThinkChina. 3 August.

Roy, Denny (2020). "Xi Jinping thought on diplomacy" fails to impress—or reassure. The Diplomat. 2 April.

Spencer, James H., Melissa L. Finucane, Jefferson M. Fox, Sumeet Saksena, and Nargis Sultana (2020). Emerging infectious disease, the household built environment characteristics, and urban planning: Evidence on avian influenza in Vietnam. Landscape and Urban Planning 193 (January 2020).

Spencer, James H., Catherine Ross, and Sumeet Saksena (2020). Opinion: Smart cities can help fight against infectious diseases. Atlanta Journal-Constitution. 17 February.

Spencer, James H., Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox (2020). New findings on links between urban expansion and viral disease in Vietnam offer lessons for COVID-19. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 1 April.

Vogt, Tobias, Fanny Kluge, and Ronald Lee (2020). Intergenerational resource sharing and mortality in a global perspective. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 201920978. doi:10.1073/pnas.1920978117

Walsh, Stephen J., Laura Brewington, Francisco Laso, Yang Shao, Richard E. Bilsborrow, Javier Arce Nazario, Hernando Mattei, Philip H. Page, Brian G. Frizzelle, and Francesco Pizzitutti (2020). Social-ecological drivers of land cover/land use change on islands: A synthesis of the patterns and processes of change. In S.J. Walsh, D. Riveros-Iregui, J. Acre-Nazario, and P.H. Page, eds. Land cover/land use change on islands: Social and ecological threats to sustainability, pp. 63–88. Heidelberg: Springer.

Woods, Kevin (2020). Smaller-scale land grabs and accumulation from below: Violence, coercion and consent in uneven agrarian change in Shan State, Myanmar. World Development 127: 104780. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104780

Woods, Kevin, and Jared Naimark (2020). Conservation as counterinsurgency: A case of ceasefire in a rebel forest in southeastern Myanmar. Political Geography 83: 102251. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2020.102251

Wu, David Y.H. (2020). Under the banner of Northern Chinese cuisine: Invention of the Pan-China cuisine in American Chinese Restaurants. In Jenny Banh and Haiming Liu, eds. American Chinese restaurants: Society, culture and consumption, pp. 121–135. London and New York: Routledge.

Wu, David Y.H. (2020). Invention of diaspora Chinese cuisine in global politics (グローバル政治におけるディアスポラ汎中国料理の創出). In Kazuhiro Iwama (岩间 一弘), ed. <中国料理と 近现代日本: 食 と嗜好 の文化交流史> (Chinese cuisine and modern, contemporary Japan: A history of cultural exchange in food and taste), pp. 243–263. Tokyo, Japan: Keio University Press. (2020 Revised and New Edition in Japanese).

Xue, Lulin, Yaping Wang, Andrew J. Newman, Kyoko Ikeda, Roy M. Rasmussen, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Ryan J. Longman, Andrew J. Monaghan, Martyn P. Clark, and Jeffrey R. Arnold (2020). How will rainfall change over Hawai‘i in the future? High-resolution regional climate simulation of the Hawaiian Islands. Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology 118: 1–32. doi:10.5065/7c2d-bg23

Yokying, Phanwin, and Maria S. Floro (2020). Parents’ labor force participation and children’s participation in work activities: Evidence from Thailand. Oxford Development Studies 48(3): 287–303. doi:10.1080/13600818.2020.1792431

Yokying, Phanwin, and Isabel Lambrecht (2020). Landownership and gender gaps in agriculture: Insights from Ghana. Land Use Policy 99 (December 2020). doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105012

Yoo, G., Sang-Hyop Lee, Jonghoon Lee, and Cheolsoo Lee (2020). The future of labor [in Korean]. Seoul: Hyeonamsa.

2019

Alegado, R., M. Coffman, C. Fletcher, Victoria Keener, and B. Mehnert (2019). Guidance on revisions to the revised ordinance of Honolulu Chapter 23, regarding shoreline setbacks. Honolulu: City and County of Honolulu Climate Change Commission.

Baird, I.G., W. Noseworthy, N.P. Tuyen, L.T. Ha, and Jefferson Fox (2019). Land grabs and labour: Vietnamese workers on rubber plantations in southern Laos. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography 40(1): 50–70.

Brewington, Laura, Victoria Keener, and Alan Mair (2019). Simulating land cover change impacts on groundwater recharge under selected climate projections, Maui, Hawaiʻi. Remote Sensing of Human-Environment Interactions. 11(24):3048.

This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. The study demonstrated that a spatially explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate. The outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.


Broder, Sherry P. (2019). Plastic and microplastic litter: A serious problem in the Arctic Ocean. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 28 August.

Brown, Tim, and Wiwat Peerapatanapokin (2019). Evolving HIV epidemics: The urgent need to refocus on populations with risk. Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS. 14(5): 337–53.

This analysis shows that most "concentrated" HIV epidemics outside of sub-Saharan Africa do not become "generalized" over time. Although the proportion of prevalent HIV infections among the "general population" grows, this growth primarily reflects turnover in key populations and transmission from current and former key population members to their intimate partners. Only a limited amount of transmission is between members of the general population with no relationship to key populations. So key populations must remain at the core of epidemic responses.

Brown, Tim, and Wiwat Peerapatanapokin (2019). HIV/AIDS in Asia: We need to keep the focus on key population groups. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 17 September.

Corell, Robert W., Jong Deog Kim, Yoon Hyung Kim, Arild Moe, Charles E. Morrison, David L. WanderZwaag, and Oran R. Young, eds. (2019). The Arctic in world affairs: A North Pacific dialogue on global-Arctic Interactions: The Arctic moves from periphery to center. Busan, Korea: Korea Maritime Institute; and Honolulu, HI: East-West Center.

A "New Arctic" is emerging that is functionally operating in a dramatically changed—and rapidly changing—world order. This New Arctic is a direct consequence of unprecedented changes in the global climate system and concurrent transformations in the geopolitical world, all of which further drive changes in the Arctic, which in turn have global consequences. The scale of change in this New Arctic presents a new and shifting reality, with global reach. These rapid changes provide new venues and opportunities that affect the interests of Arctic coastal nations and high-north businesses and governance. Finally, a new international multi-decadal-scale agenda is emerging that increasingly focuses on four major changes, with international and domestic consequences: climate change, global and Arctic regional socio-economic change, challenges that affect human and societal well-being, and geopolitical realities.

De Alban, Jose Don T., Graham W. Prescott, Kevin M. Woods, Johanness Jamuludin, Kyaw Thinn Latt, Cheng Ling Lim, Aye Chan Maung, and Edward L. Webb (2019). Integrating analytical frameworks to investigate land-cover regime shifts in dynamic landscapes. Sustainability. 11:1–23.

The Tanintharyi Region of Myanmar, which contains one of the last remaining significant contiguous forest areas in Southeast Asia, was heavily deforested between 1992–2015. By combining remote sensing methods and a literature review of historical processes leading to land-use and land-cover change, this study identified a regime shift from a forest-oriented state to an agricultural-oriented state between 1997–2004. The regime shift was triggered by a confluence of complex political and economic conditions within Myanmar, notably the ceasefires between various ethnic groups and the military government, coupled with its enhanced business relations with Thailand and China. Government policies and foreign direct investment enabling the establishment of large-scale agro-industrial concessions reinforced the new agriculture-oriented regime and prevented reversion to the original forest-dominated regime.

Eaton, Jeffrey W., Tim Brown, Robert Puckett, Robert Glaubius, Kennedy Mutai, Peter W. Young, Le Bao, Joshua A. Salomon, John Stover, Mary Mahy, and Timothy B. Hallett (2019 in press). EPP-ASM and the r-hybrid model: New tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS. Supplement on UNAIDS modeling methods.

Ernst, Dieter (2019). China’s innovation policy and the quest for semiconductor autonomy: Q&A with Dieter Ernst. Insight: The Journal of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. May/June 2019: 25-27.

China’s leadership is eager to use all the tools of industrial, trade, and competition policy to co-shape international standardization and to catch up and forge ahead in advanced manufacturing and services. While U.S. analysts typically see these policies as a ploy for world domination, in China they are viewed as unavoidable if the country wants to move beyond the outdated “Global Factory” model based on low-wage mass production. China's current AI and big-data boom has deepened US-China rivalry and explains the proliferation of US technology export restrictions.

Frauendorf, Therese C., Richard A. MacKenzie, Ralph W. Tingley, Abby G. Frazier, Michael H. Riney, and Rana W. El-Sabaawi (2019). Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal sampling regimes. Global Change Biology. 25(4): 1344-57.

We utilized a well‐constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space‐for‐time substitution. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.

Frazier, Abby G. (2019). Economic costs of drought in Hawai'i. Fact sheet. Honolulu: East-West Center.

The 2007-2014 drought in Hawai‘i was the longest and most severe drought on record in Hawai'i's history, costing millions of dollars in agricultural losses. The ranching sector alone lost an estimated $23 million. Drought also affects many other sectors, including tourism and recreation, wildfire control, and ecosystem services.

Frazier, Abby G., and Laura Brewington (2019). Alpine environments under threat in Hawai'i and New Zealand. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 11 November.

Frazier, Abby G., and Laura Brewington (2019). Current changes in alpine ecosystems of Pacific Islands. Elsevier.

Alpine ecosystems in Hawai‘i and New Zealand have significant cultural, social, and economic value; however, they are threatened by invasion of exotic species, climate change, and human impacts. Both New Zealand and Hawai‘i have experienced strong warming at higher elevations, and future projections indicate that these warming trends will continue. Glacial retreat has been noted in New Zealand's Southern Alps, with 34 percent of ice volume lost since 1977, and New Zealand may lose 88 percent of its ice volume by 2100. Snowfall on Hawai‘i’s mountain peaks is projected to almost entirely disappear by 2100. Changes are occurring rapidly, and additional monitoring and research are needed to conserve these uniquely sensitive, remote regions.

Frazier, Abby G., J.L. Deenik, N.D. Fujii, G.R. Funderburk, T.W. Giambelluca, C.P. Giardina, D.A. Helweg, Victoria W. Keener, A. Mair, John J. Marra, S. McDaniel, L.N. Ohye, D.S. Ok, E.W. Parsons, A.M. Strauch, and C. Trauernicht (2019). Managing effects of drought in Hawai‘i and U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands. In J.M. Vose, D.L. Peterson, C.H. Luce, and T. Patel-Weynand, eds. Effects of drought on forests and rangelands in the United States: Translating science into management responses. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-98. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, pp. 95–121.

Drought is a signifcant climate feature in Hawai‘i and the U.S.-affliated Pacifc Islands, at times causing severe impacts across multiple sectors. Below-average rainfall is often accompanied by higher-than-average temperatures and reduced cloud cover, exacerbating the effects on both agricultural and natural systems. Reduced water supply due to drought also has social and economic consequences. Better resource management can help alleviate drought-related social and biophysical stress on natural and human systems. At the same time, Pacifc Island cultures benefit from traditional knowledge and community-based approaches that have supported communities during drought periods over thousands of years.

Gingerich, S.B., A.G. Johnson, S.N. Rosa, M.D. Marineau, S.A. Wright, L.E. Hay, M.J. Widlansky, J.W. Jenson, C.I. Wong, J.L. Banner, Victoria W. Keener, and Melissa L. Finucane (2019). Water resources on Guam—Potential impacts of and adaptive response to climate change. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019–5095. Washington, D.C.: USGS. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20195095.

Projected average temperature increases, and average rainfall decreases will lead to reduced streamflow in southern Guam and reduced groundwater recharge to the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer (NGLA). By following mitigation strategies to increase reservoir water availability, the withdrawal rate can be increased by 1.7 percent if the water-supply intakes are lowered 5 ft, by 3.5 percent if the spillway height is raised 5 ft, and by 5.3 percent if both strategies are combined.

Grecni, Zena, Leah Shore, and Benét Duncan (2019). Learning from success in climate-informed cecision-making: case studies across three U.S. regions. Honolulu: East-West Center.

This report, prepared by a network of sustained assessment specialists created within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (NOAA RISA) program, describes five case studies of successful local responses to climate change that are supported by scientific information. They include improving local climate-adaptation efforts in San Angelo, Texas, enhancing the resilience of iconic coastal ecosystems on Hawai‘i Island, managing water in the Colorado River Conservation District, increasing conservation resilience in the southern Great Plains, and using El Niño forecasts to plan for drought in the Pacific Islands.


Harwit, Eric (2019). WeChat and the growth of China’s indigenous internet. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 11 January.

Hurni, Kaspar, Jamon Van Den Hoek and Jefferson Fox (2019). Assessing the spatial, spectral, and temporal consistency of topographically corrected Landsat time series composites across the mountainous forests of Nepal. Remote Sensing of Environment. 231:111225.

In this article, we present a novel framework for evaluating topographically corrected image composites using cloud computing. We evaluated six topographic correction methods (Bin Tan, C-Correction, Minnaert with slope, Sun-Canopy-Sensor plus C-Correction, Statistical-Empirical, and Variable Empirical Coefficient Algorithm) in forest areas of four Landsat footprints in Nepal for a time series of image composites from 1988 to 2016. Our evaluation shows that the Statistical-Empirical topographic correction method provides the best overall performance, but other methods show the best performance for some years and footprints. We discuss these differences and related reasons and give recommendations on the best use and evaluation of topographic correction methods.

Keener, Victoria, S.B. Gingerich, and Melissa Finucane (2019). Guam's water resources. Honolulu: East-West Center, Pacific RISA.

Keener, Victoria, S.B. Gingerich, and Melissa Finucane (2019). Freshwater availability in Guam with projected changes in climate. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2019). Analyzing population ageing and intergenerational redistribution: NTA and AGENTA. In  Bernhard Hammer, Ronald Lee, Alexia Prskawetz, and Miguel Sanchez-Romero, eds. Special issue on Population Aging and Intergenerational Redistribution, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. 17:1-5. 

Longman, R.J., Abby G. Frazier, A.J. Newman, T.W. Giambelluca, D. Schanzenbach, A.K. Kagawa-Viviani, H.L. Needham, J.R. Arnold,  and M.P. Clark (2019). High-resolution gridded daily rainfall and temperature for the Hawaiian Islands (1990-2014). Journal of Hydrometeorology. 20(3).

A distance-weighted interpolation method used to map daily rainfall and temperature in Hawaii is described and assessed. The methods presented here provide an effective approach for mapping daily weather fields in a topographically diverse region and improve on previous products in their spatial resolution, time period of coverage, and use of data.

Lulu, Fan, and Boy Lüthje (2019). Taobao villages: Rural E-commerce and low-end manufacturing in China. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 31 July.

Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2019). Demographic dividends: Policies based on an understanding of population dynamics will help countries achieve the SDGs. In SDGs: Transforming our world. 2019 edition. United Nations Association. UK.

Taking advantage of the opportunities and responding to the challenges presented by the demographic transition require forward-looking policies that take account of population dynamics. The success of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which pledges that no one will be left behind, is strongly bound to anticipating and planning for the effects of the demographic transition that will unfold during the SDG period.

Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2019). Macroeconomic impacts and policies in aging societies. In Aging societies: Policies and perspectives. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.

Will population aging lead to an economic crisis with tepid economic growth, generational inequality, unsustainable public finances, and overly burdened families? Answering these questions definitively requires data and analysis that have not been available in many countries. The evidence that is available, however, indicates that countries with moderate population aging can pursue policies that will capitalize on the benefits and minimize the costs of population aging. Countries with very low fertility and a severely aging population will likely face serious economic challenges.

Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2019). The economic impact of population aging: How should policymakers respond? East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 1 March.

Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, Ronald Lee, and Gretchen Donehower (2019). Macroeconomics and policies in aging societies. In David Bloom, ed. Live long and prosper? The economics of ageing populations. Washington, DC: Center for Economic and Policy Research.

McNally, Christopher (2019). Theorizing Sino-capitalism: Implications for the study of comparative capitalisms. Contemporary Politics. 25(3): 313–33.

Morrison, Charles E., and Daniel Chinen (2019). Millennial+ voices in Okinawa: An inquiry into the attitudes of young adults toward the presence of U.S. bases. Honolulu: East-West Center and United States-Japan Foundation.

Many young adults on Okinawa have mixed feeling about the U.S. bases and are often more concerned with other issues such as jobs, the economy, and the possibility of natural disasters. This report recommends that the U.S. military’s public outreach programs should be reviewed with younger people in mind and should take advantage of the desire for more base contact.

Morrison, Charles E., and Mark Nuttall (2019). New U.S. policies toward Greenland. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 27 September.

Noland, Marcus (2019). Alliances under stress: South Korea, Japan, and the United States. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 19 November.

Noland, Marcus (2019). Interpreting American public opinion on international trade: How should Asia respond? East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 23 August.

Noland, Marcus (2019). Japan considers a National Economic Council. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 5 February.

Noland, Marcus (2019). Protectionist trade policy dampens US economy and risks conflict with Asia. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 8 January.

Roy, Denny (2019). Assertive China: Irredentism or expansionism? Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. 61(1): 51–74.

Roy, Denny (2019). COVID-19 crisis reveals the CCP's true colors. The Japan Times. 6 March.

Roy, Denny (2019). North Korea goes nuclear: A postmortem. The Diplomat. 21 November.

Roy, Denny (2019). How China uses money to control political discourse. Washington Times. 11 November.

Roy, Denny (2019). Taiwan's potential role in the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy: Convergence in the South Pacific. Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research.

This report examines the role of the Pacific Islands in Taiwan’s grand strategy and argues that Taiwan’s struggle to maintain formal diplomatic relations with these states dovetails with the United States’ reformulated Indo-Pacific strategy, even if Washington has yet to articulate a clear plan for coordinating activities in the South Pacific with Taipei.

Roy, Denny (2019). US strategy toward China: Three key questions for policymakers. PacNet30. Honolulu, HI: Pacific Forum.

China’s economic development holds many potential benefits for the international community, but there are downside risks for the US associated with China’s rise. A US strategy for protecting itself hinges on three fundamental questions: Is China ascending to regional hegemony?, Would the harm to US interests caused by a Chinese hegemony justify the cost of trying to thwart this outcome?, and What is the most efficient US strategy for preventing a form of Chinese domination that would undermine US well-being?

Roy, Denny (2019). Why Xi Jinping can't sell China's 'One Nation' strategy. The National Interest. 28 October.

Saksena, Sumeet, Chinh Cong Tran, and Jefferson Fox (2019). Tree planting and cooking fuel in Vietnam: A case of unintended consequences. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 24 May.

Salim, Wilmar, Keith Bettinger, and Micah Fisher (2019). Jakarta's 'Great Garuda' project: Profits for re-emerging elites in the name of climate change. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 21 June.

Salim, Wilmar, Keith Bettinger, and Micah Fisher (2019). Maladaption on the waterfront: Jakarta's growth coalition and the Great Garuda. Environment and Urbanization ASIA. 10(1): 63–80.

The capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta, faces chronic flooding which has been and will continue to be exacerbated by climate change processes. In response to this threat, the government has devised a megaproject solution, the so-called Great Garuda project. We describe how this project fails to address the root causes of flooding in Jakarta and show how the project is a channel through which politically connected economic elites of the Suharto regime can reconstitute "growth coalitions"’ to benefit from privileged access to development contracts and concessions.

Shimizu, Mika and Allen L. Clark (2019). Nexus of resilience and public policy in a moderen risk society. Singapore: Springer Nature.

This book integrates the latest theoretical insights on public policy and resilience and the latest practical analyses of case studies, such as the Tohoku Disaster in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, to provide policy tools for future resilient societies and disaster risk management.

Shirai, Yuko, Stephen Leisz, Jefferson Fox, and Terry Rambo (2019). Commuting distances to local non-farm workplaces and out-migration: The case of Northeast Thailand. Asia Pacific Viewpoint. 60(3): 280–95.

Showalter, Kevin, David López-Carr, and Daniel Ervin (2019). Climate change and perceived vulnerability: Gender, heritage, and religion predict risk perception and knowledge of climate change in Hawaii. The Geographical Bulletin. 60(1): 49-71.

This study explored climate change-related risk perception among residents of the ‘Big Island’ of Hawaii. Results reveal relationships between risk perceptions for climate change and gender, with women significantly more aware of the risks posed by climate change.

Spencer, James H. (2019). Small and big infrastructure: A community planning theory of increments, and interoperability. Journal of Economic Policy Reform 24(2): 151–169. doi:10.1080/17487870.2019.1616547

Spencer, James H., and Bunnarith Meng (2019). Resilient urbanization and infrastructure governance: The case of the Phnom Penh Water Supply Authority, 1993–2007. Water Policy 21(4): 848–864. doi:10.2166/wp.2019.211

Tsuya, Noriko O., Minja Kim Choe, and Feng Wang (2019). Convergence to very low fertility in East Asia: Processes, causes, and implications.  Tokyo: Springer Japan.

Three countries in East Asia—Japan, South Korea, and mainland China—now have among the lowest levels of human fertility in the world. The shift to very low fertility has ushered in an era of entirely new demographic dynamics, including rapid and extreme population aging and ensuing dramatic population decline. This book provides a systematic comparison of fertility transitions in these three East Asian countries, discusses the economic, social, and cultural factors that may account for their similarities and differences, and concludes with a discussion of policy implications.

Woods, Kevin M. (2019). Green territoriality: Conservation as state territorialization in a resource frontier. Human Ecology. 47(2): 217–32.

This paper explores how global conservation projects carried out in forest frontiers under rebel authority can serve to assert state control over resource-rich territories and populations, based on a two-year field case study in a global biodiversity hotspot under armed conflict and inhabited by Karen in southeastern Myanmar. Findings reveal how military offensives, economic concessions, and conservation activities threaten to bring state agencies, administration, and management into rebel forests where the local population fled from war but have not yet returned. These findings highlight the importance of integrating conservation activities in conflict-affected areas with humanitarian assistance, land restitution, and livelihood rehabilitation.

Woods, Kevin M. (2019). In Myanmar, conflicts over land and natural resources block the peace process. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 29 January.

Woods, Kevin M. (2019). Rubber out of the ashes: Locating Chinese agribusiness investments in ‘armed sovereignties’ in the Myanmar-China borderlands. Territory, Politics, Governance. 7(1):79–95.

Since the mid-2000s, mainland Chinese companies have invested in large-scale agribusiness concessions in northern Myanmar, often partnering with local armed "strongmen," many of whom were or still are involved in the illicit drug trade. Case study data demonstrate how China’s contemporary cross-border investments have extended Myanmar’s national political authority within the arc of armed sovereignties. Chinese-backed agricultural estates, whether awarded to paramilitary militias or rebel leaders under ceasefires, acted as state territorial interventions and led to incremental Myanmar state-building outcomes. The study traces how China’s current land-based investments have reawakened the borderland’s legacy of political violence and reconfigured armed sovereignties closer towards Myanmar’s military state.

Wu, David (2019 forthcoming). グローバル政治におけるディアスポラ汎中国料理の創出. In K. Iwama, ed. Chinese Cuisine in East-Asia. Tokyo: Institute of East-Asian Studies, Keio University.

Yokying, Phanwin, and Isabel Lambrecht (2019). Landownership and the gender gap in agriculture: Disappointing insights from Northern Ghana. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1847. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

This paper analyzes how land ownership is associated with agency and achievements in agriculture among female and male farmers in northern Ghana, a region transitioning from customary land tenure without individual ownership rights towards a more individualized and market-based tenure system. Our estimates indicate that landownership is positively correlated with men’s and women’s agency in agriculture, namely in decisions on agricultural cultivation and membership in agricultural associations. Yet, we also find that gender gaps in participation in cultivation decisions, the use of agricultural earnings, and agricultural workload persist among those who own land. While the results underscore the importance of land as a resource that can enhance women’s agency, they also point out that policies aiming to solely advance land rights may not be sufficient to eradicate or even reduce gender inequality in agriculture.

Pre-2019

Noland, Marcus (2018). US trade policy in the Trump administration. Asian Economic Policy Review 13(2): 262–278.

Noland, Marcus (2003). Chasing Phantoms: The Political Economy of USTR. International Organization 51(3): 365-387.

Noland, Marcus (1997). Public policy, private preferences, and the Japanese trade pattern. The Review of Economics and Statistics 79(2): 259–266.

Noland, Marcus, Sherman Robinson and Tao Wang (2001). Famine in North Korea: Causes and cures. Economic Development and Cultural Change 49(4): 741–767.

Full Lists of Publications by East-West Center Authors

* Publications on Environmental Issues

* Publications on Population and Health

* Publications on Innovation, Economic Integration, and Growth

* Publications on Governance, Security, and Justice

 

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